Turyshev of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory argues debris solution hinges on control and economics

Dr. Slava Turyshev argues in an arXiv pre-print that cleaning up orbital debris requires traffic control and economics instead of garbage-truck capture missions, Universe Today reported on Nov. 12, 2026.

The work by S.G. Turyshev carries the title Orbital Debris in Earth Orbit: Operations, Stability, Control, and Market Formation, according to Universe Today. It argues for managing traffic and building markets instead of deploying capture missions to remove objects from orbit. arXiv is a pre-print server where researchers share scholarly papers before formal publication.

FCC filings show that SpaceX’s Starlink satellites carried out 144,404 collision avoidance maneuvers between December 2024 and May 2025, according to Universe Today. SpaceX runs the largest satellite megaconstellation. The figure means that, on average, each Starlink satellite must dodge a potential crash roughly every week even accounting for the growing number of satellites in orbit.

Starlink, Amazon’s Kuiper and China’s Qianfan typically fly around 500–600 kilometers above Earth, Universe Today reported. At that altitude, enough atmosphere remains that the area is semi self-cleaning, so dead satellites and debris burn up in a few years. A megaconstellation is a large network of many satellites working together in orbit.

Around 850 kilometers, uncontrolled giant rocket stages from past launches remain aloft because minimal atmosphere exists to pull them down, according to Universe Today. These objects could remain aloft for decades or centuries without any way to avoid one another. That leaves large derelict objects in a region where natural atmospheric cleaning does not occur. Deorbit means bringing a satellite or rocket stage down from orbit.

When such objects collide they spray debris into their own orbit and into higher and lower orbits, endangering lower-orbiting communications megaconstellations, the article says. European Space Agency data cited in the paper indicates that dead objects drive roughly 96 percent of long-term collision risk, according to Universe Today. Turyshev also argues that halting all rocket launches tomorrow would not stop existing orbital debris from colliding and shattering faster than nature can clear it.

Kessler Syndrome describes an orbital cascade that orbital dynamicists have treated as a long-standing problem for decades, Universe Today noted. It is not a surprise to those following the space debris problem. Turyshev outlines three separate levers for managing orbital debris, according to Universe Today.

The first lever calls on regulators to ensure satellites deorbit intentionally and quickly once their missions end. Post-mission lifetime is the time a satellite remains in orbit after its work ends.

Environmental hazard falls by a factor of 50 if disposal reliability improves from 90 to 99 percent while post-mission lifetime falls to five years, the paper states. This illustrates the effect of the first lever combining better reliability with a shorter post-mission lifetime. Environmental hazard refers to the danger that debris objects pose to active spacecraft and other orbital objects.

Even at a 99 percent successful deorbit rate, potentially millions of satellites in orbit leaves tens of thousands of derelict objects remaining at any given time, according to Universe Today. The sheer scale problem persists even with high disposal reliability. Derelict objects are spacecraft or rocket stages that no longer function or are controlled.

SSA, or space situational awareness, refers to tracking objects in orbit. SSA systems track large objects well but cannot monitor smaller debris the size of a bullet, according to Universe Today. Even for larger objects, analysts face fuzziness, knowing only a general box rather than exact position.

If the uncertainty box around an object is large, satellite operators burn fuel dodging objects that never posed a real threat. Turyshev suggests reducing the uncertainty zone around possible high-risk close calls rather than trying to monitor every bolt and nut in orbit. An uncertainty box is the predicted area where an object might be.

NOAA’s Traffic Coordination System for Space (TraCSS) is growing its pilot program to serve more commercial operators in 2026, according to Universe Today. This real-world infrastructure upgrade aligns with Turyshev’s idea of concentrating on shrinking uncertainty zones for high-risk close calls. Turyshev proposes Just-in-Time Collision avoidance to deal with semi-permanent debris already in space.

Just-in-Time Collision avoidance means acting only when a specific collision risk is imminent rather than continuously tracking every object. Ground-based lasers or small shepherd satellite swarms could shift dead rocket upper stages a short distance just before impact. Shepherd satellite swarms are groups of small spacecraft that nudge other objects. This is less expensive than deorbiting everything but is not as much of a long-term solution because it only avoids the immediate problem.

Turyshev says the debris cleanup market fails because of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty and the tragedy of the commons, according to Universe Today. Under the treaty, a private cleanup company cannot deorbit an abandoned Soviet rocket booster because it remains under the ownership of the government that launched it, even if that government no longer exists. The tragedy of the commons describes a situation where individuals acting in their own interest deplete a shared resource.

When one firm removes a rocket booster, all other companies with equipment in orbit benefit, but the cost is not spread among them. This economic problem means private firms lack incentive to remove the most dangerous debris first without intervention, according to Universe Today. Turyshev proposes contracts that pay for verifiable reductions in long-term risk to encourage companies like Astroscale to remove the most dangerous debris first.

Governments would fund this through disposal bonds that repay if the satellite stays in orbit without active intervention from Astroscale or competitors. This financing mechanism is part of Turyshev’s market-based approach to debris remediation. Disposal bonds are financial instruments that pay out based on whether a satellite remains in its assigned orbit without help.

No clear path forward exists for a successor to the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, Universe Today reported. The article lists this among the remaining issues alongside the sheer scale of the debris problem. Ignoring orbital debris issues makes the problem worse the longer a space-faring civilization waits, according to Universe Today.

“But the longer we as a space-faring civilization ignore these issues the worse the problem is going to get,” the Universe Today author wrote. Universe Today’s author concludes that the paper may help provide impetus for a formal adopted solution framework or at least start a more comprehensive conversation.