New Mexico researcher points to heightened Taurid airburst risk in 2026

Mark Boslough of the University of New Mexico told EarthSky that fresh calculations point to a heightened chance of an atmospheric airburst from the Taurid meteor shower in 2026. The Taurid meteor shower peaks each year during late October and early November and produces unusually bright meteors called Halloween fireballs in some years but not every year.

Boslough said the 2026 scenario depends on two assumptions that remain unproven: the Tunguska object belonged to a cluster and shared orbital elements with the hypothetical swarm. He said researchers lack confirmation for either condition and called the scenario highly speculative due to the two big ifs. The hypothesis remains unconfirmed.

Boslough estimates that objects in an 18:61 resonance orbit with Earth would complete 18 solar orbits for every 61 Earth orbits. Mark Boslough estimated that a cluster of Tunguska-related objects in an 18:61 resonance orbit might return near Earth every 61 years. He said an object in that orbit would return in June 1930. He said 1908 would lead to 1969 and then 2030.

If the Tunguska object had missed Earth in 1908, it could return in 2030. The Halloween 2026 encounter matters because the same resonance creates a close encounter around Halloween four years before the 2030 June encounter.

The 2025 study proposed that Earth could pass near a hypothetical swarm of larger objects in the Taurid meteor stream in 2032 and 2036, potentially raising atmospheric airburst risk. Scientists said Jupiter’s gravity might organize the debris into dense clusters. If so, Earth could pass near those clusters in 2032 and 2036. Boslough said the hypothesis is testable and researchers will know in 2032 if the hypothesis is real.

Scientists describe an airburst as an atmospheric explosion caused by an incoming space rock, citing the 1908 Tunguska event in Siberia and the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor that broke windows in six Russian cities. The Tunguska airburst flattened forestland in Siberia. Some researchers connect the Tunguska event to the Beta Taurids, a daytime shower tied to the same debris stream as the October and November Taurids.

Astronomers believe asteroid 2004 TG10, found by the Spacewatch program on Oct. 8, 2004, is the parent of the Taurid meteor shower and travels on an orbit matching Comet Encke. Scientists consider it one of several asteroids created when a large object fragmented.

Some researchers have linked the Beta Taurids, a daytime meteor shower sharing debris with the October and November North and South Taurids, to the 1908 Tunguska event. EarthSky explains that the Beta Taurids happen in June during the day, while the better-known North and South Taurids appear in October and November, and all three connect to the same debris stream from Comet Encke. Astronomers believe the Taurid meteor shower may have formed from a large object that broke up, producing Comet Encke and several asteroids.

The Taurid debris stream shares a resonance with Jupiter because it completes two solar orbits for every seven Jupiter orbits, and Jupiter’s gravity may arrange the stream into dense clusters. Part of the stream approaches Jupiter at regular intervals because of this relationship. Scientists said if Jupiter is affecting the swarm this way, Earth could pass near denser clusters in 2032 and 2036.

Researchers studying Taurid meteor observational data concluded that the danger from airburst-sized near-Earth objects might exceed current estimates. These objects are small enough to blast apart in the sky rather than hit the ground. Airburst-sized near-Earth objects can explode in the atmosphere instead of hitting the ground. The finding suggests current risk estimates may be too low and supports studying Taurid fireballs for planetary defense purposes.

Some astronomers have suggested large asteroids might hide in the Taurid stream, but whether that is the case is unknown. Boslough said researching whether Taurid meteors can generate airbursts belongs to planetary defense because past airbursts have caused damage on Earth’s surface. He defined planetary defense as an international, multidisciplinary effort to protect Earth from near-Earth object impacts, requiring discovery surveys, tracking, characterization, impact modeling, and mitigation through avoidance or civil defense.