Brazil reports record low Amazon deforestation ahead of October vote

Brazil’s government reported that deforestation in the Amazon and Cerrado fell to record lows ahead of the 25 October 2026 presidential election run‑off.

Satellite data showed Amazon forest clearance fell 41.8% in the year to July 2026 to 3,335 square kilometres, the lowest level since records began in 1988. The presidential election run‑off will be held on 25 October 2026 between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.

The Amazon rainforest, the world’s largest, has 60% of its area located in Brazil. In the year to July 2026, deforestation in the Cerrado decreased by 23.8%.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who took office three years ago, pledged to end illegal deforestation in the Amazon by 2030. Lula stated on X this Friday that the target is zero illegal deforestation by 2030.

During Lula’s first year in power, deforestation fell to its lowest point in six years after he strengthened environmental monitoring and raised penalties for illegal logging. Brazil’s Environment Minister Joao Paulo Capobianco described the decline in Amazon deforestation as absolutely stratospheric.

Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of Observatorio do Clima, called the decline an historic achievement for Brazil and said political will can curb deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions. During Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency from 2019 to 2022, the Amazon lost nearly 60% more forest land compared with the previous four years.

The Cerrado savanna region recorded its lowest annual deforestation since 2001 at 5,516 square kilometers. In the last four years, deforestation across the Cerrado has decreased by 48.4%.

Between 2019 and 2023, the Amazon deforestation rose 59.5% under Jair Bolsonaro, a level likened to clearing over a million trees each day. The rise resulted from reductions in forest protection staff, lower penalties for environmental offenses, and verbal support for illegal miners, loggers and land grabbers.

Starting in 2022, the year before Lula took office, Brazil’s deforestation rate dropped 71.2%, based on figures from the National Institute for Space Research. Tighter enforcement and increased state funding for environmental bodies chiefly drove the decline since 2022.

In 2026 the states with the highest share of Amazon deforestation were Pará (33.9%), Mato Grosso (25.5%) and Amazonas (15.7%). Even in those three states deforestation fell by more than 45% compared with the previous year. Roraima was the only state where deforestation increased, rising by 0.4% in 2026.

Polls indicated a neck‑and‑neck race ahead of the run‑off. If elected, Flávio Bolsonaro will likely maintain his father’s policies, though he has promised to fight organized crime in the Amazon.

Flávio Bolsonaro has emulated his father’s strategy, seeking backing from predatory landowners in the Amazon and other extractive sectors while leaving climate action out of his platform. Marina Silva, the former environment minister, said Flávio Bolsonaro aims to carry out his father’s ‘perverse project’ of destroying the Amazon.

Electoral maps show Bolsonaro receiving the most votes near degraded forest, mines, ranches and soya monocultures, while Lula’s support is stronger in big cities and areas with intact forest vegetation. Lula warned that Donald Trump seeks to colonize Brazil and take its resources, while describing the Amazon as a sovereign Brazilian asset, an Indigenous homeland and a vital part of global climate stability.

The Bolsonaro family keeps strong links to the United States: Eduardo Bolsonaro has resided in Texas since last year and pressed the Trump administration for punitive tariffs on Brazil, while Jair Bolsonaro has greeted the US flag and led chants of ‘USA, USA’. If the Bolsonaro family returns to power, experts expect Brazil to shift trade priorities for critical minerals from China and Europe toward the United States.

Conservation groups said the new deforestation data shows how much is at stake in the presidential run‑off. Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of the Climate Observatory, said the figure makes it clear that ending forest destruction in Brazil is possible, but the outcome depends on the election result, which will decide whether the country moves toward ending deforestation or toward losing the forest.